Cyclone Mocha Threat Increasing in the Bay of Bengal: Tropical Weather Bulletin for May 7th

CYCLONE MOCHA THREAT INCREASING IN THE BAY OF BENGAL: TROPICAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR MAY 7TH

In the latest tropical weather bulletin for May 7th, it has been reported that although there are currently no storms being tracked, more areas of disturbed weather are progressing across the Indian Ocean. Of particular concern is the potential next tropical cyclone that is slowly rising, with the Bay of Bengal being given a code yellow warning.

 Atlantic Ocean:

25 days until hurricane season begins and at the time of broadcast, there were a few tornado warnings active over the United States. Across the Atlantic, things are looking fairly calm, with every little system moving off across the central Atlantic towards the eastern reaches.

 Western Pacific:

The two disturbances in the Western Pacific are still present, but they are not doing very much. The one near Palawan is now over the South China Sea, and it's just a naked swirl. The Bay of Bengal is given a 60% chance for the potential next tropical cyclone, with chances slowly rising.

Southern Hemisphere:

There is a 30% chance for the system in the southern half south of the equator, with all coming from this massive monsoonal mass. Another little disturbance is developing, according to GFS, in the next five days, but no other models are on board with that, so it has not been marked yet.

Satellite Imagery:

The satellite imagery in the last 24 hours has shown red zones, mostly over the Indian Ocean, parts of India, and bits of Southeast Asia, showing torrential rainfall occurring at various points during that time period. In Indonesia, they got a bit too much rain, with the satellite imagery showing an enormous mess occurring across the eastern part of the Indian Ocean towards Indonesia Sumatra. The Malay Peninsula is also expected to receive quite a bit of rain from this indirectly.

Bay of Bengal:

The tropical cyclone threat is gradually rising, with a 60% chance for the Bay of Bengal. The system is expected to run through possibly the Andaman Islands and then off towards the northern Bay of Bengal. There is a 30% chance for the system in the southern half south of the Equator, with both coming from the massive monsoonal mass.

Southern Hemisphere:

Invest 91s is the system on the southern side that has been marked with a 30% chance.

Satellite Imagery in the Last 24 Hours:

Several red zones were observed over the Indian Ocean, parts of Indie, China, and Indonesia, indicating torrential rainfall. The satellite imagery in the last few hours shows an enormous mess occurring across the eastern part of the Indian Ocean towards Indonesia Sumatra.

Sea Surface Temperatures:

Sea surface temperatures are continuing to improve across the Eastern Pacific, with temperatures reaching and possibly exceeding 30 degrees Celsius in parts of Eastern Mexico. Further out to sea, however, temperatures are quite a bit cooler, and early-season storms will have trouble getting far out to sea. The Indian Ocean has extremely warm waters, pushing above 32 degrees Celsius, possibly near the Andaman Islands. This is a big concern if the potential cyclone tracks right over those waters. The southwest Indian Ocean is gradually cooling down, holding on to 27 degrees Celsius waters over Mauritius and my reunion across the coastal Mozambique, with similar temperatures.

As we move into the heart of cyclone season, the global weather patterns are becoming increasingly unpredictable. In this article, we take a closer look at the current situation and what we can expect in the coming days.

Temperatures in Australia have degraded, hovering around 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. While it's a far cry from the soaring temperatures experienced just a few weeks ago, the situation remains concerning. Meanwhile, the South Pacific is seeing a decline in temperatures to the west of New Caledonia. However, the waters around the islands of Fiji and Vanuatu remain warm, as does the Western Pacific with temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius in the Philippine Sea and even warmer in the South China Sea, with waters reaching above 31 degrees Celsius.

North Indian Ocean Anomalies and Potential Cyclones:

Anomalies in the North Indian Ocean are expanding, which is a worrying sign for the potential Cyclone brewing in the region. The warm waters in the South Pacific and Eastern Pacific also cannot be ignored, as they could add to the severity of the situation. In addition, the equatorial line in the Eastern Atlantic is showing signs of an oncoming El Nino, and the oceanic content is piping hot, especially towards the Iberian Peninsula.

The Oceanic Content Situation:

Oceanic content in various parts of the South Pacific looks okay, although it doesn't reach New Caledonia anymore. The Western Pacific remains largely unchanged, but the Philippine Sea is looking very good. The Eastern Pacific also has good conditions, much better than last year.

GFS's Latest Run:

GFS's latest run shows three potential tropical cyclones in the next five days. While there are two that we are already aware of, the third one, located in the South Indian Ocean, is yet to be confirmed by other models. The other two, however, are gaining momentum, and GFS predicts that they will both become powerful cyclones. The northern system has more modeling backing, while the southern one is not as supported. The southern system is expected to curve away quickly before reaching Indonesia, while the northern system is likely to bend through the animal Islands towards the western coast of Myanmar.

The weather forecast for the Indian Ocean is showing potential for a significant cyclone, with heavy rainfall predicted in several areas. This blog post provides an overview of the forecast and its potential impact.

Heavy Rainfall in Indonesia, Sumatra, and Andaman Islands

Already affected by rainfall, Indonesia and the coast of Sumatra are predicted to experience another 19 inches of rainfall, which is close to 500 millimeters. The Andaman Islands could see up to 23 inches of rain, which is nearly 600 millimeters. The forecast for Myanmar is also showing heavy rainfall along the coast.

Potential Cyclone in the Indian Ocean:

The GFS weather model is calling for a 914 millibar peak, which is not far from a record in the basin. This could potentially make it a category 5 cyclone, although other models are not quite there yet. However, it is becoming clearer that there will be a significant cyclone in the Indian Ocean.

Uncertainty Surrounding Cyclone's Landfall:

While the forecast is clear about the potential for a significant cyclone, uncertainty remains as to where it will make landfall. This is a big question mark for the areas that could be affected.

Updates on Shenanigans in the Southern Indian Ocean:

There are two systems in the southern Indian Ocean, with the tiny southwestern Indian Ocean cyclone unlikely to develop. The southeastern region system will likely run out of steam towards the end of the 10-day period, towards May 17th.

Potential Activity in the Western Pacific:

In the next 10 to 16 days, potential activity is expected in the Western Pacific, with two systems predicted by the GFS model. One system is expected to form in the far reaches of the Pacific Ocean, while the other is expected to form in the South China Sea and possibly reach the northern part of Luzon from the west.

As we head into the heart of the 2023 hurricane season, it's important to take a closer look at the names that will be given to tropical storms in the different regions of the world. In this article, we'll explore the names selected for storms in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, Central Pacific, Western Pacific, North Indian Ocean, and South Pacific regions.

Atlantic Names:

The first name on the Atlantic naming list for 2023 is Arlene. This is followed by Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irma, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, and Whitney.

Eastern Pacific Names:

In the Eastern Pacific, the first storm of the season will be named Adrian. This is followed by Beatriz, Calvin, Dora, Eugene, Fernanda, Greg, Hilary, Irwin, Jova, Kenneth, Lidia, Max, Norma, Otis, Pilar, Ramon, Selma, Todd, Veronica, Wiley, Xina, York, and Zelda.

Central Pacific Names:

The Central Pacific region will use names from a joint list with the Eastern Pacific. The first name on this list for 2023 is Jose, followed by Akoni, Ema, Hone, Iona, Keli, Lala, Moke, Nolo, Olana, Pali, Upana, Walaka, and Xerxes.

Western Pacific Names:

The Western Pacific region uses a different naming system. The first 16 names are predetermined by a committee, while subsequent names are contributed by the countries in the region. The 17th storm of the year in this region will likely be named Mocha.

North Indian Ocean Names:

In the North Indian Ocean, the next storm to develop will be named Moira. This is followed by Nilam, Ockhi, Phethai, Sagar, Vayu, Hikaa, Kyarr, Maha, Bulbul, Pawan, Amphan, Nisarga, Gati, Tauktae, Yaas, and Gulab.

South Pacific Names:

Finally, in the South Pacific, the next storm to develop will be named Lola. This is followed by Meena, Neil, Osea, Polly, Reuben, Tuni, Ula, Val, Wati, Aca, Bina, Cody, Dovi, Epi, Faris, and Gretel.

Conclusion:

It's fascinating to see how different regions of the world use different naming systems for tropical storms. No matter what the name, it's important to always take these storms seriously and prepare accordingly. Stay safe and keep an eye on any storm updates as the 2023 hurricane season progresses