Typhoon Mawar 2023, Bagyong Betty 2023 very likely to move towards Northern Philippines
The Western Pacific has just experienced its first typhoon of the 2023 season, Typhoon Mawar. The typhoon is currently strengthening over the Marshall Islands and is expected to impact Guam starting night and throughout the day on Wednesday. The worst of the weather is expected to hit Guam and Rhoda around noon on Wednesday. Saipan is already experiencing serious outflow early on Monday morning, with rain bands starting to work their way into the picture.
The latest forecast shows that the typhoon is steering off towards the North and hooking towards the left. The track has edged a little bit towards the West, but it is important to keep in mind the cone of air, which is not where the impacts will be the worst, but where the track could waiver over the next few days. Even if the track waivers by 10, 20, or 30 miles, it could mean a big difference, especially if the inner eye wall starts to tighten up. Based on the current track, there is a high probability that we will be seeing typhoon strength winds in Rhoda and Anderson on the Northern portions of Guam.
It is important to prepare for the typhoon now. A typhoon watch is in place for Guam, Rhoda, and Saipan, covering pretty much the entire Mariana Islands. The worst of the weather is expected on Wednesday afternoon. There is also a long-range threat for Okinawa, Luzon, or Taiwan. There is some guidance differentiation once the typhoon moves further towards the West, but based on the current track, the worst of the weather will be in Anderson and Rhoda.
As we look ahead, the typhoon is expected to move away, and conditions will improve as we go ahead into Thursday. The long-range guidance is differentiating, with the ECMWF wanting to pull the storm a little bit closer to Luzon, while the GFS has been pulling it towards the North. It all depends on the speed of the typhoon and how the high-pressure area back towards the North and East interacts with the storm system. There is going to be a new low forming here west of Luzon, and if that low forms enough, it could draw both of these storms just a bit closer together, bringing it further towards Luzon.
It is important to note that these storms are dangerous, and even when they are just a category one or two, it is still important to prepare. As the typhoon pulls away, conditions will improve, but it is important to keep a keen eye on the possible impacts from this typhoon. If you are in Guam, be ready, be smart, and stay safe.
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