Typhoon Mawar 2023 or Bagyo Betty 2023 very likely to become a Super Typhoon shortly
Hello everyone! I wanted to address some of the questions that have been asked regarding Tropical Storm Mawar, which has been officially upgraded by the Japan Meteorological Agency. We are closely monitoring its impacts here in Guam, where typhoon conditions are likely to be seen. However, we are also concerned about where it could head after that.
The storm is currently strengthening and organizing, with plenty of inflow coming in from the south. The tighter the low-level circulation gets, the better the guidance will be on this storm system. At this time, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is in line with the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as far as the impacts on the Mariana Islands are concerned. The storm is expected to move off towards the north, passing over Guam, Rota, and Saipan with winds up to about 150-170 kilometers per hour (over 100 miles per hour).
The big question is where the storm could go after it passes Guam, as guidance has been differing. If the storm system rapidly intensifies and tightens up, wherever the eye wall hits will be where the biggest impacts will be. The storm is expected to hit the Mariana Islands on Tuesday, with the biggest impacts and the most heavily populated areas being on Guam along the west coast. The winds will wrap around and start to push back on shore, and there could even be some low-lying flooding due to some onshore wind, maybe even a bit of a storm surge.
Looking at the broader picture, we have a trough towards the north and inflow coming in from the west, which is all going to create a threat of rainfall. The storm is expected to pass over the Mariana Islands, but then it could head towards an ORF within that gap, hit a high-pressure area, and pull towards the west towards the southern Japanese Islands. However, if the high pressure increases, then we're going to see it kind of come towards Luzon, and if it weakens, then it could go towards the northern areas of the Philippines.
The biggest impact is going to be that inflow for the Philippines and the threat of flooding due to the persistent rainfall that could take place over several days. Our attention is currently on what's going to be happening in Guam, and the National Weather Service there has been doing a fantastic job of keeping everyone posted on this and letting them know what to expect as this storm system pushes on by.
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, please let me know down in the comment box below. Stay safe out there, and if you're in Guam, Rota, or Saipan, hunker down and wait for the storm system to pass. The buildings out here are built for it, so just be smart, be ready, be prepared, and stay safe.
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