TYPHOON MAWAR 2023 OR BAGYONG BETTY 2023 HEADING TOWARDS PHILIPPINES
The Pacific region is currently experiencing a storm system that is slowly intensifying towards the east of the Philippines and southeast of Okinawa. While there is still plenty of time to monitor the storm, it is trending towards the south and west of Guam, which is good news for Rhoda and Saipan. However, Guam could still be impacted by the storm, especially on the East Coast, which is expected to be in the right front quadrant of the storm system with winds of over 200 kilometers per hour. The inner core of the storm, where the damaging winds are located, will be impacting the island. It is important to remember that the highest winds are in the inner eye wall of the storm, and low-lying areas could experience coastal flooding.
The storm is currently undergoing slow intensification, and the Dvorak analysis is not showing a rapid part just yet. However, it is trending more and more towards the south and west of Guam, which is good news for Rhoda and Saipan. If the storm misses the island completely, that would be fantastic news based on the current track. The storm could be a category 2 borderline category 3, and the inner core, which is where the highest winds are located, will be impacting the island. It is important to remember that the inner eye wall is where the damaging winds are located, and when we're talking about islands, it really just depends on whether the storm hits your island or not based on the current track.
The storm is expected to continue tracking towards the west, and it wouldn't be surprising if it gets up to super typhoon status as it heads into the Philippine Sea. The storm is expected to enter the Philippine area of responsibility by Friday or Saturday and could enhance the habaga or the Southwest Monsoon for the Philippines. The models have been trending more and more towards the west, which could impact Luzon and the southern Japanese islands and Okinawa. It is important to stay typhoon ready and conscious in case the storm heads in that direction.
The guidance with the westward track means that we could be seeing those damaging winds a bit earlier than Wednesday, around lunchtime, maybe Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, with this storm system coming onshore. Coastal areas, such as Pirate Cove, will probably be seeing the highest winds. The East Coast is more vulnerable, but the West Coast is a little bit more sheltered. However, it doesn't mean you're completely sheltered by any means if you get the inner core of the storm. You will get the worst of the impacts. The storm surge is not something we terribly worry about quite often here in Guam, but low-lying areas will definitely be seeing that threat of some coastal flooding. Even over towards Rota, you're going to still see some of those impacts as well.
A typhoon warning is expected to be issued soon, or probably already has been issued by the time you're reading this on Tuesday morning. We're at least going to see tropical storm strength conditions, with about a 90% chance of that. I would even put typhoon conditions up that high as this pushes off towards the north. We don't really evacuate too much on Guam, but if you do need to head to a shelter, know where that is and evacuate if you're ordered to do so. Some of these areas that aren't the more vulnerable locations, just be smart and be safe. Not everybody has been through the inner core of a typhoon, especially military people new to the island. 100 mile per hour winds or more will surprise you, and that's not even super typhoon status.
The trend has been continuing towards the west, with a high pressure building, which is why for those in Luzon, it's important to stay typhoon ready and conscious. The models have been trending more and more towards the west, and it's not until it just gets right off the Philippines that we do start to see that trend and that turn towards the north. However, anything over five days is still a long range, which is why we have that cone of air. Luzon really needs to start watching this more and more closely with this westward trend in the overall guidance. For now, that's still something you need to watch for. Guam needs to prepare because winds are already starting to pick up out there, and conditions are already beginning to deteriorate.
In conclusion, it is important to stay informed and prepared during this storm system. The storm is slowly intensifying and trending towards the south and west of Guam, which is good news for Rhoda and Saipan. However, Guam could still be impacted by the storm, especially on the East Coast, which is expected to be in the right front quadrant of the storm system with winds of over 200 kilometers per hour. The inner core of the storm, where the damaging winds are located, will be impacting the island. It is important to remember that the highest winds are in the inner eye wall of the storm, and low-lying areas could experience coastal flooding. Stay safe and stay prepared.
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