Cyclone Fabien makes history in the South- West Indian Ocean- May 17, 2023

CYCLONE FABIEN MAKES HISTORY IN THE SOUTH- WEST INDIAN OCEAN

Cyclone Fabian Reaches Category 3 Status: Strongest Since 1986

Cyclone Fabian has now reached Category 3 tropical cyclone status, making it the strongest cyclone since Cyclone Billy Lila in 1986 – an impressive 37 years ago. Currently located at 8.7 degrees south and 74.3 degrees east, Fabian has sustained winds of 115 miles per hour, a pressure of 963 millibars, and is moving southwest at 7 miles per hour.

As of May 17th, 6 hours UTC, tropical storm force winds extend up to 60 nautical miles in the northeastern quadrant, 75 nautical miles in the southeastern quadrant, 80 nautical miles in the southwestern quadrant, and 60 nautical miles in the northwestern quadrant. Although there are no official watches or warnings, the island of Diego Garcia is experiencing some effects of the cyclone, such as constant rain, high waves, storm surge, and possible tropical storm force winds.

Cyclone Fabian is currently 205 kilometers east-southeast of Diego Garcia, 1,680 kilometers northeast of Port Mathurin, 2,190 kilometers northeast of Port Louis in Mauritius, and 2,410 kilometers northeast of Saint Denis in Reunion. Different agencies have varying estimates of Fabian's strength, with Météo-France reporting 100 miles per hour sustained winds (Category 2), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center at 110 miles per hour (high-end Category 2), and I believing it has reached Category 3 status with 115 miles per hour sustained winds.

Fortunately, Fabian has begun its weakening trend, which is expected to continue over the next few days. By May 22nd, it may weaken to a tropical storm due to westerly wind shear and increasingly hostile atmospheric conditions. Sea surface temperatures remain warm at 28-29 degrees Celsius, but this is not enough to counteract the unfavorable conditions.

As Cyclone Fabian weakens, its compact wind field may still affect Diego Garcia with gusting winds, but not enough to cause significant damage. Rainfall is a concern, with 2-4 inches possible on Diego Garcia and up to 32 inches in some open water areas as the cyclone stalls.

The weakening trend is expected to continue, with wind shear increasing and sea surface temperatures decreasing as the cyclone moves southward. Humidity will remain favorable, so Fabian is not expected to struggle with dry air. For more information and updates on Cyclone Fabian, visit my facebook page as Cyclone Tracker.