Rising Chances of a New Typhoon in the Western Pacific : May 18, 2023

 Increasing Chances of a New Typhoon This Week: Tropical Weather Bulletin

As of May 18th, the chances of a new typhoon forming are on the rise. After a brief absence in bulletins due to technical and other issues, Fabian remains active as a Category 1 cyclone near Diego Garcia. The main system currently active could be brewing in the Western Pacific.

With 14 days until the Atlantic hurricane season, we can sense changes as frontal systems move across the US East Coast and out to sea. However, no areas of interest are active at the moment. The Eastern Pacific is on day four of its hurricane season, but similarly, no tropical cyclones are expected, and the tropics appear quiet.

The Western Pacific has a 60% chance of a new system forming, which will head northwest. Models show that these chances are increasing. Fabien is still present in the South Indian Ocean, stalling near Diego Garcia. Satellite imagery from the past 24 hours shows Fabien as a small tropical cyclone that has weakened significantly from its Category 3 peak a few days ago.

In the Western Pacific, two areas of interest, 96W and 97W, are developing. The system that is likely to form has marked slight rotation and could be a significant rainmaker for some Micronesian islands on its way towards Guam.

Sea surface temperatures are warm in the Indian Ocean, even after Cyclone Mocha, with the Arabian Sea being the hottest at 32 degrees Celsius. The Western Pacific has extremely warm sea surface temperatures in the Philippine Sea, where the system is currently located.

The GFS model predicts a broad system that starts to rotate and moves northwest towards Guam. This development is interesting because previous model runs had it further south and weaker. The storm could become a typhoon as it gets close to Guam, with near typhoon-force winds.

Rainfall estimates from the Western Pacific system could be alarmingly high, especially for small islands in Micronesia between Chuk and Yap. The GFS model indicates up to 52 inches of rain in just the next seven days for some areas.

In the longer range, the system could develop into a moderate to major typhoon, Category 3, on its journey towards Japan. It will weaken before reaching Japan and recurve. Fabien, in the South Indian Ocean, will continue to move westward and pose no threat to Rodrigues or Mauritius.

As we monitor the development of this potential typhoon, it's essential to stay informed and prepared. Follow our website for more info about the tropical storms..