Where is the landfall location of Cyclone Mocha 2023?? Detailed Latest Forecast on Bay of Bengal Cyclone

Rain threat increasing across eastern Indian Ocean - May 6, 2023

Welcome to the latest update on tropical activity around the world. While the tropics remain without an active system, the threat of rain is sharply increasing in the Indian Ocean from two potential tropical cyclones. The massive mess of clouds in the area could develop into one or more tropical cyclones on either side of the Equator, with a code yellow alert currently in place for the Bay of Bengal. While concerns about winds are present, we are increasingly concerned about rainfall.

The Atlantic hurricane season is still 26 days away, but a big frontal system is already moving through the region. The Western Pacific has one or two little systems, including one near Palawan in the Philippines and another near Micronesia. There is also some convection north of the Australian top end, and we are currently monitoring two tropical systems in the Indian Ocean.

The trend is continuing East towards the Andaman Sea for the Bay of Bengal system, which could reside completely there. Additionally, a 20 system further south on the southwest Indian Ocean side could develop not far from Indonesia. This could cause a bad situation for the western coast of Sumatra, with both of these systems congregating in that area for a little bit.

Satellite imagery in the last 24 hours shows rain across India moving further eastwards, with a few red spots showing very high rain rates. This is mainly over the open ocean, with a few spots over the Papua New Guinea Indonesia region as well. The latest satellite imagery over that area reveals that the southern system is becoming more apparent in the last few hours

The weather conditions around the world are always changing, and right now there are several areas of interest that we are keeping a close eye on. One of the most pressing concerns is in the Indian Ocean, where two potential tropical cyclones are threatening to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds. At present, a code yellow has been issued for the Bay of Bengal, and we are increasingly concerned about the possibility of widespread flooding. Moving over to the Western Pacific, we are also monitoring a couple of systems, although they are not currently marked as having a high chance of development.

Despite these uncertainties, we can take some comfort from the fact that the Atlantic hurricane season is still a few weeks away. In the meantime, there are a few storms across the United States, but the rest of the region looks fairly quiet. The Western Pacific is also relatively calm, with just one or two small systems in the area. Meanwhile, in the Indian Ocean, we are seeing a massive area of clouds that could develop into one or more tropical cyclones.

Sea surface temperatures are another important factor that we need to consider. In the Eastern Pacific, temperatures are continuing on a warm trend, with some areas reaching up to 30 degrees Celsius. The Atlantic is also looking good, with the loop current and Gulf Stream both starting to heat up. The Indian Ocean is extremely warm, particularly in the Bay of Bengal and southwest Indian Ocean. In contrast, the Australian region has been struggling to hold on to those 30 degrees Celsius waters, and it is really cooling down. The oceanic heat content is already gone in the Gulf of Carpentaria, which is a little surprising for this time of year.

The Western Pacific region appears to have remained relatively stable, while the South China Sea is looking good. However, the Eastern Pacific is catching up, with a significant area in open waters showing higher levels than last year's peak season. Looking at the GFS computer model for the next five days, a big wind burst is expected to hit the coast of Indonesia, resulting in potentially two cyclones. The southern system could reach Category 2 status, but other models are not in agreement. Meanwhile, the Andaman Sea is also moving northwards and strengthening towards the end of the five-day period.

The seven-day rainfall outlook for the Bay of Bengal system indicates that there could be a significant amount of rainfall along the coast of Indonesia, moving further north up to the southern tip of Myanmar. Up to 26 inches of rainfall is expected in parts of Indonesia, which translates to over 500-600 millimeters. The southern part of Myanmar could receive up to 16 inches or 400 millimeters of rainfall, while the Andaman Islands could see 12 inches or 300 millimeters.

Looking further ahead to days five to ten, the storm is expected to intensify significantly, with the GFS model supporting this view. However, other models are not in agreement and predict that the storm will make landfall to the west of Yangon, as a very powerful storm, possibly a moderate Category 4 hurricane. It is worth noting that the track has moved further east, and if it continues moving in that direction, it will run out of room.

In conclusion, the weather patterns in the Western Pacific, South China Sea, and Eastern Pacific remain relatively stable. However, a big wind burst hitting the coast of Indonesia could result in potentially two cyclones, and significant rainfall is expected along the coast of Indonesia and moving further north. The intensity of the storm could ramp up in days five to ten, with the GFS model supporting this view, but other models are not in agreement.

In the tropical weather update, the Central Pacific might see a weak system in five days, but it won't be a tropical cyclone. Moving to the Atlantic, there are one or two potential chances of a tropical cyclone towards the middle to later part of May. However, those systems are way out, and no faith should be put into them yet.

Switching to May 6, 2009, the Western Pacific had a strong Typhoon Kajira, which was still a Category 3 storm after coming off its Category 4 peak. Chan Hum was also intensifying in the South China Sea, moving northeast towards the Philippines, where it would make landfall as a Category 2 storm.

Looking at the upcoming naming lists for various regions, the first name on the Atlantic list is Arlene, Adrian for the Eastern Pacific, and Hodei for the Central Pacific. In the Western Pacific, the next name is Moira, while the North Indian Ocean is still calling upon Mocha. The Australian region, Southwest Indian Ocean, and South Pacific may see storms like Jasper, Fabian, and Lola, respectively.

For more updates and discussions on tropical weather and general weather, interested individuals can join our Facebook account as Cyclone Tracker. That concludes tonight's tropical weather bulletin, and another update will be available tomorrow morning..