As we move closer to the hurricane season in the Northern Hemisphere, the Tropics are currently active with a few systems that could potentially develop. The Indian Ocean is particularly active with plenty of cloud cover and rainfall over Southern India and Sri Lanka. However, no tropical cyclones have been formed yet. Over the last 24 hours, there have been a few red zones that have seen large amounts of rain, particularly in the Palawan islands of the Philippines.
The Western Pacific has a few disturbances, but none of them are expected to form into tropical cyclones. Invest 95 near Palau is blowing up convection, but its chances of developing have been dropped. Meanwhile, there is a 50% chance for a potential Bay of Bengal system next week and a 20% system in the southern hemisphere.
Satellite imagery shows two distinct masses in the Indian Ocean with one over Southern India and the other further southwest towards the Philippines. Invest 93w is still delivering copious amounts of rainfall to the Palawan peninsula despite not having a circulation. However, most of the convection is falling to the southeast of the island with the Northwestern and Northern parts of the island not seeing much from this system.
Sea surface temperatures around the world are relatively warm, particularly in the Eastern Pacific and the Bay of Bengal where it's pushing close to 32 degrees Celsius. However, the southwest Indian Ocean is still on a cooling trend as we move into the cooler months of the year.
Overall, there are plenty of tropical signals in the Tropics, particularly in the Indian Ocean. However, no tropical cyclones have been formed yet, and the Western Pacific is relatively quiet. We will continue to monitor the situation as we move closer to the hurricane season in the Northern Hemisphere
In the South Pacific, temperatures are still looking good in some locations, particularly in lower latitudes. However, there is no certainty about what may occur in the near future. The sea surface temperatures around the Philippine Islands are particularly warm and could be contributing to the development of some weather systems.
The Western Pacific is also experiencing high temperatures, particularly in the Philippine Sea and Micronesia. Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific is showing signs of a potential El Nino event, with extreme warm anomalies near the equator. Although there is still a big cool pool, it has been noted that it is shrinking in recent bulletins.
In the Atlantic, temperatures are looking very warm near Mexico, with only a small weakness in the region. Oceanic heat content is still looking good in the South Pacific, particularly near Vanuatu and Fiji, but not in high latitudes.
The GFS model over the next five days shows a potential system forming in the Central Pacific, but no other models are supporting this. There is a little system that could potentially become a tropical storm and be named honeay, but there are no signs that this will happen, and it has not been designated a percentage.
Finally, the article notes that the North Indian Ocean is getting more complex as potential systems progress. The energy is pushing eastwards, and two systems are forming further east, giving them less room to maneuver around Indonesia and the Andaman Sea region
we're looking at two weather systems that could potentially reach hurricane-equivalent status according to GFS. However, it's looking like a bigger rainfall event for Indonesia, particularly along the western coast of Sumatra. Enormous rainfall totals are expected along that area, possibly reaching up to 20 inches or 500 millimeters for the northwestern tip of Sumatra. The Andaman Island region is also expected to receive close to 15 inches or 400 millimeters of rain in the next seven days. Although there are a few spots with elevated rainfall amounts in Sri Lanka, it's not expected to be significant.
The southern part of the Bay of Bengal will experience monsoonal type rainfall patterns. The longer-range forecast shows the GFS system becoming a very powerful storm, potentially reaching category 4 as it heads towards the coast of Myanmar. The landfall is expected further east, somewhere around Cox's Bazaar. There's also another system down south in the South Pacific that is moving away from the South Indian.
The GFS is also showing a long-range Arabian Sea system developing and moving northeastwards around the 17th or 18th of May. While a more easterly Makunu is possible, it's considered unlikely. In 2004, on May 5th, a similar scenario was playing out with Juba forming in the South Indian Ocean while tropical storm 1B had just been initiated off the western coast of India.
The first name on the Atlantic naming list this year is Arlene. In the Eastern Pacific, it's Adrian, and in the Central Pacific, it's still Hone. The Western Pacific's next stop is Moana, while in the North Indian Ocean, it will be Mocha if this system gets its name. In the southern hemisphere, the Australian region's next name is Jasper, the southwest Indian Ocean's next name is Fabienne, and the South Pacific's next name is Lola.
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