Invest 93W, a flooding threat for the Philippines - May 03, 2023

A tropical disturbance is brewing near the Philippines, and it's expected to become a tropical cyclone soon. At present, the system is located at 7.2 degrees north and 131.2 degrees east, known as Invest 93WO. With sustained winds of 30 miles per hour and a pressure of 1005 millibars, it is estimated to be moving northwest at approximately 10 miles per hour.

 

Currently, there are no tropical storm force winds at any quadrant, and there are no Cyclone watches, warnings, or storm surge in effect. The system is located around 580 kilometers to the east of Davao in the Philippines, as well as General Santos, which is located at 625 kilometers to the east. Furthermore, it is around 825 kilometers to the southeast of Lakovan, and 870 kilometers to the southeast of Cebu. In addition, it is approximately 420 kilometers to the west of Palau.

 

While the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is estimating weaker winds of 20 to 25 miles per hour, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a moderate tropical cyclone potential risk for the week of May 1st to May 7th. The system is expected to cross the Philippines and bring heavy rain, potentially resulting in flash flooding, particularly in Mindanao, Cebu Province, and other southern locations.

 

The sea surface temperatures in the system's location range from 30 to 31 degrees Celsius, indicating favorable conditions for intensification. The potential for tropical cyclone development is expected to occur in the next few hours and days, crossing the Philippine area and developing in the South China Sea before crossing the Palawan province. According to the Global Forecast System (GFS), the system is expected to stall nearby the Palawan area and intensify into a moderate tropical storm, bringing heavy rain and potential flooding

 

While weather forecasts for the next five days are subject to change, it is likely that this system will intensify into a tropical cyclone, possibly receiving the name Awar. The presentation of the system shows some spiral banding and rotation appearing at high levels, and some convection is occurring as well.

 

It's crucial to monitor the system closely as the weather is always unpredictable. Let's stay updated with the latest information on this developing system